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Zenel Garcia and Kevin Modlin – Revisiting “Sino-Russian Relations and the War in Ukraine”

Zenel Garcia and Kevin Modlin – Revisiting “Sino-Russian Relations and the War in Ukraine”

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 In this podcast, Zenel  Garcia and Kevin  Modlin draw on recent visits of Chinese officials to Russia to support their contention that Sino-Russian relations are a narrow partnership centered on accelerating the emergence of a multipolar order to reduce American hegemony and illustrate this point by tracing the discursive and empirical foundations of the relationship. Additionally, they highlight how the war has created challenges and opportunities for China’s other strategic interests. Read the article here. Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast. Keywords: China, Russia, Ukraine war, strategic partnership, multipolarity Episode Transcript: Revisiting "Sino-Russian Relations and the War in Ukraine"  Stephanie Crider (Host)  You're listening to Conversations on Strategy. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Department of the Army, the US Army War College or any other agency of the US government.   Joining me today are doctors Zenel Garcia and Kevin Modlin, authors of “Sino-Russian Relations and the War in Ukraine,” which was published in the Autumn 2022 issue of Parameters.   Welcome back, Zenel and Kevin.   I wanted to invite you back to revisit your article. It was published about six months after Russia invaded Ukraine. You pointed out in your piece that it's not enough to say China has taken Russia's side in the Russian war against Ukraine. China's response has created an opportunity to, and I'm quoting you here, “accelerate the emergence of a multipolar order to reduce American hegemony.”   You paint a picture of China and Russia not as allies but as two countries that see each other as key poles in a multipolar order. What I want to focus on today is the China-Russia relationship and how it has developed since last August. With the recent Xi-Putin meeting, there was also discussion of what that relationship entails. Some see it as transactional. Others see it as an emerging alliance. What do you think?  Kevin Modlin  Thank you, Stephanie, for having us again.   When we think about what's transpiring in light of the war in Ukraine, as well as just the evolving relationship with Russia and China, I think it's important to pause and notice how many countries are moving away from Russia and how that actually contextualizes our conversation. So, because of the number of countries that are distancing from NATO countries in Central Asia and India and Japan, that makes it more obvious who Russia is near to. And perhaps it can emphasize or contribute to a perception that we think that they are drawing closer to China under those types of circumstances. It's more noticeable when you have one person standing with another person in that type of scenario.   However, whether it be articulated in the sense of a multipolar order or just in the general relationship, we actually see numerous examples where they've maintained something of a status quo in their interactions. So they continue to avoid committing to each other, which I think is the central argument. There is a robust debate among academics of what entails an alliance and everything I think Zenel and I are going to emphasize and say the delineation point is to what degree do states commit to each other.   And of course, Russia is constrained and who they can partner with and trade and other transactions. So, of course, they're going to interact more with China in those regards. But they're also continuously seeking to avoid arrangements. And even when they met, a number of people noticed as Zenel will note, natural gas pipeline initiatives and other projects have been stalled. That's worth revisiting.  Zenel Garcia  To build up from what Kevin was stating, the way in which China and Russia are interacting, especially even in recent months, with the two foreign ministers meeting,
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