Nate and Maria take a quick break from the World Series of Poker to tape a live episode at the Aspen Ideas Festival. They give some updates on a scandal at the World Series, then discuss Zohran Mamdani’s recent win in New York City’s Democratic primary, and what it might mean for elections moving forward. They also discuss the language we use to convey probability, and why talking about it can be so difficult. Plus, they answer some audience questions.

Further Reading:

From Adam Kucharski’s newsletter, Understanding the unseen: Possibly a serious possibility

From Silver Bulletin: Zohran delivered the Democratic establishment the thrashing it deserved

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

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This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s strikes on Iran. How can we understand this developing situation, without falling prey to our own biases? And when nuclear weapons are involved, how do risk calculations change?

Plus, Nate and Maria recap another week at the World Series of Poker, which wouldn’t be complete without some controversy.

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“The Leap” (https://mariakonnikova.substack.com/) from Maria Konnikova
“Silver Bulletin” (https://www.natesilver.net/) from Nate Silver

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Can game theory be used to win a world cup? Can you pay the way out of political corruption? And are there winning strategies in life we don't use because we're too embarrassed?

We're sharing this special episode of Cautionary Tales in which Nate and Maria make an appearance to answer listener questions with CT host Tim Harford.

For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com.

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